Fortunes Formula William Poundstone Pdf
William Poundstone is an American author, columnist, and skeptic. He has written a number of books including the Big Secrets series and a biography of Carl Sagan. He is a cousin[vague] of comedian Paula Poundstone.[citation needed]
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- William Poundstone Written Works
- Fortune S Formula William Poundstone Pdf
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An enthusiast of Harry Stephen Keeler, he maintains the Keeler homepage and contributed to the anthology A to Izzard: A Harry Stephen Keeler Companion (2002).
Poundstone attended MIT and studied physics.[1]
- A scientist at Bell Labs, John Kelly, Jr., solved this riddle. According to the Kelly formula, one should wager the fraction of one's bankroll on a bet equal to your edge over the odds.
- Fortune's Formula by William Poundstone Book Resume: In 1956, two Bell Labs scientists discovered the scientific formula for getting rich. One was mathematician Claude Shannon, neurotic father of our digital age, whose genius is ranked with Einstein's.
Fortune’s Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street – William Poundstone Home. Fortune’s Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street – William Poundstone. Buy Fortune's Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street by William Poundstone (ISBN: 604) from Amazon's Book Store. Everyday low prices and free delivery on eligible orders.
Bibliography[edit]
- Big Secrets: The Uncensored Truth About All Sorts of Stuff You Are Never Supposed to Know. 1983.
- The Recursive Universe: Cosmic Complexity and the Limits of Scientific Knowledge. 1984. ISBN978-0809252022.
- Bigger Secrets: More Than 125 Things They Prayed You'd Never Find Out. 1986.
- Labyrinths of Reason: Paradox, Puzzles, and the Frailty of Knowledge. 1988.
- The Ultimate: The Great Armchair Debates Settled Once and for All. 1990.
- Prisoner's Dilemma: John von Neumann, Game Theory, and the Puzzle of the Bomb. 1992. ISBN978-0385415804.
- Biggest Secrets: More Uncensored Truth About All Sorts of Stuff You Are Never Supposed to Know. 1993.
- Carl Sagan: A Life in the Cosmos. 1999.
- The Big Book of Big Secrets. 2001. reprints Big Secrets and Biggest Secrets
- How Would You Move Mount Fuji? : Microsoft's Cult of the Puzzle—How the World's Smartest Companies Select the Most Creative Thinkers. 2003.
- Fortune's Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street. 2005. ISBN978-0809045990.
- Gaming the Vote: Why Elections Aren't Fair (and What We Can Do About It). 2008.
- Priceless: The Myth of Fair Value (and How to Take Advantage of It). 2010.
- Are You Smart Enough to Work at Google?. 2011.
- Rock Breaks Scissors: A Practical Guide to Outguessing and Outwitting Almost Everybody. 2014. ISBN978-0316228060.
- Head in the Cloud: Why Knowing Things Still Matters When Facts Are So Easy to Look Up. 2016. ISBN978-0316256544.
- The Doomsday Calculation: How an Equation that Predicts the Future Is Transforming Everything We Know About Life and the Universe. 2019. ISBN978-0316423922. Released as How to Predict Everything in the UK[2]
References[edit]
- ^'Once a physicist: William Poundstone'. Institute of Physics. November 2012.
- ^Smith, Nick (4 June 2019). 'Book review: 'How to Predict Everything' by William Poundstone'. Engineering & Technology. Institution of Engineering and Technology. Retrieved 16 July 2019.
External links[edit]
| Wikiquote has quotations related to: William Poundstone |
- Official website
- Poundstone, William. 'Web Projects'. Retrieved 9 October 2012.
Retrieved from 'https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=William_Poundstone&oldid=912427870'
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In 1956 two Bell Labs scientists discovered the scientific formula for getting rich. One was mathematician Claude Shannon, neurotic father of our digital age, whose genius is ranked with Einstein's. The other was John L. Kelly Jr., a Texas-born, gun-toting physicist. Together they applied the science of information theory—the basis of computers and the Internet—to the prob..more
Published September 19th 2006 by Hill and Wang
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Must-Read Books for Gamblers 28 books — 13 voters
Best Books About Mathematics 377 books — 551 voters
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William Poundstone Written Works
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An engaging multi-biography/history of the repeatedly-reinvented Kelly criterion, mixed in with overviews of Claude Shannon, John Larry Kelly, Jr., Ed Thorp, and their famous gambling adventures in beating blackjack and roulette and, as some of the first ‘quants’, the stock market. (Like Thompson sampling, the Kelly criterion has been reinvented many times; Poundstone lists at least 4 inventors: Kelly, Leo Breiman, Bernoulli, and Henry Latané.)
Poundstone starts with the early mob and the ‘number
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Shelves: history, economics, behavioural-economics, science, maths
This is a very interesting book and one that explains complicated mathematical and economic ideas beautifully and simply. It is a story that involves gangsters, mathematicians, the founder of information theory, more gangsters and politicians and police (both corrupt and, well, even more corrupt).
The formula to make a fortune is essentially this – if you are going to bet you need to be sure you have some sort of edge (not necessarily a ‘sure thing’, but an edge), in this book the gamblers gener..more
The formula to make a fortune is essentially this – if you are going to bet you need to be sure you have some sort of edge (not necessarily a ‘sure thing’, but an edge), in this book the gamblers gener..more
Aug 01, 2011Todd N rated it it was amazing
This is one of the best books I have read in a long time and the perfect book to read after The Information by James Gleick.
The title and subtitle are pretty overblown and don't really indicate what the book is about. The 'fortune's forumula' referred to in the title is pretty dang interesting though -- the Kelly criteria, which is the optimal percentage that should be wagered given the odds.
I didn't realize that there even was a optimal bet, but it turns out that overbetting is actually worse t..more
The title and subtitle are pretty overblown and don't really indicate what the book is about. The 'fortune's forumula' referred to in the title is pretty dang interesting though -- the Kelly criteria, which is the optimal percentage that should be wagered given the odds.
I didn't realize that there even was a optimal bet, but it turns out that overbetting is actually worse t..more
May 07, 2016George Jankovic rated it it was amazing
Apr 22, 2013Jacob rated it liked it Shelves: history, nonfiction, investing, economics, science, from_library
This book is a bit of an odd combination of history-biography like The Idea Factory: Bell Labs and the Great Age of American Innovation or One Summer: America, 1927 and finance / gambling. Fortunately, the long rambles about various people involved in the ideas covered by this book are diverting. It's just not as cohesive as I would prefer. Claude Shannon gets significant coverage, although his direct contribution to finance is somewhat unclear; coverage of Ed Thorp is totally appropriate (and h..more
Nov 06, 2018Jay rated it liked it · review of another edition
Some interesting stories revolving around the science of information, investments sometimes using this science (and sometimes not), and the law revolving around RICO. These things fit together loosely, and the author does a good job of tying stories back to the scientists described early on in the book. But there is a lot of ground covered, in many directions. This is a book of stories related to information theory, not a how-to book. I did not pick up on enough science to be useful for my own i..more
Interesting history tying together Claude Shannon, information theory, organized crime, probability, investment theory, and the early history of hedge funds. In general I found it interesting but too glib for its own good. The title is misleading, there isn't a single scientific betting system that beat the casinos and Wall Street. The title does refer to the Kelly Criterion, a particular method for choosing how much of your portfolio to bet in a way that simultaneously avoids any possibility of..more
Oct 08, 2008Sarah rated it really liked it
After enjoying Poundstone's Gaming the Vote, I picked this up from the local library. Quite a timely read, given the current financial disarray, this traces the history of the Kelly criterion from Bell Labs (where John Kelly, Jr. worked in the 50's and 60's), to Ed Thorp's application of it in his classic Beat the Dealer, to Wall Street in recent decades.
I feel I came away with a better understanding of the hedge fund/junk bond scandals of the 80's and 90's, as well as an appreciation of the e..more
I feel I came away with a better understanding of the hedge fund/junk bond scandals of the 80's and 90's, as well as an appreciation of the e..more
Nov 14, 2018Samuel Peck rated it liked it · review of another edition
A disappointing and poorly written book.
Very interesting subject, but author bogged it down with an endless barrage of trivial irrelevant minutiae. All those disparate useless factoids about the Mob, Claude Shannon's marriage life, LTCM, Paul Samuelson's biography - all these seemingly unrelated strands were forcibly meshed together in a disjointed manner. Many chapters flash by without any link to the Kelly Criterion itself.
For a better book on Edward Thorp, read his biography A Man For All M..more
Dec 08, 2008Bo rated it it was amazingVery interesting subject, but author bogged it down with an endless barrage of trivial irrelevant minutiae. All those disparate useless factoids about the Mob, Claude Shannon's marriage life, LTCM, Paul Samuelson's biography - all these seemingly unrelated strands were forcibly meshed together in a disjointed manner. Many chapters flash by without any link to the Kelly Criterion itself.
For a better book on Edward Thorp, read his biography A Man For All M..more
Recommends it for: anyone who enjoyes gambling, investing, or the Sopranos!
I really enjoyed this book. Who knew that MIT, Vegas Casinos, mobsters, and Wall Street all had so much in common? The stories in this book are fascinating! However, the most useful part of the book is the explanation of the relationship between information theory and betting/investing. I wish I had read this book 10 years ago.
Excellent. ' The Idea Factory: Bell Labs ..' led me to this book. Blends Mafia stories, Bell Lab star's anecdotes, gambling, a compelling betting and investment strategy via Kelly criterion and Wall Street greed stories.
Jul 19, 2010David Skelton rated it really liked it
Every bettor/investor should know the Kelly Criteria!
Nov 21, 2014Chris Peterson rated it did not like it
The nerd in me expected more discussion of how/why the Kelly criterion formula works. More of a history book than a math/gambling book.
I wanted to read this book for a while and did have the patience to start it because I thought it will be complicated and hard to read. I was wrong!! It explains complicated mathematical and economic ideas simply. The language is not over the top, but easy to understand and the explanations and examples are spot on. The author takes the time to explain all the concepts in detail, also offering short biographies on the mathematicians that worked on it and how their life and society influenced the..more
Is the story of the birth of the formula, this book doesn’t teach the practical application of the formula, good story however..
Feb 12, 2018Tadas Talaikis rated it really liked it
Heard many times elsewhere, but still cool as a history.
Investing, math, scientific discovery, economic feuds, gambling, the mob.. what's not to love?
A well-researched, entertaining narrative spanning from the early days of Bell Labs and the information age, to wall street scandals and racketeering charges. Full of history and biographical nuggets, it's a tale ultimately about risk, uncertainty, and putting your money where your mouth is.
A well-researched, entertaining narrative spanning from the early days of Bell Labs and the information age, to wall street scandals and racketeering charges. Full of history and biographical nuggets, it's a tale ultimately about risk, uncertainty, and putting your money where your mouth is.
Jan 02, 2009Elizabeth rated it it was amazing
Fortune’s Formula by William Poundstone (pp. 400)
Utterly fascinating. Gambling, mobsters, mathematicians, economists, hedge funds, greed, and how it’s linked together by some early genius and freak timing. Part history lesson, part text book, part novel, all true, it flows beautifully. For anyone who is interested in math, the financial markets, or Las Vegas, this book is a fun read.
Poundstone tells the story of how one formula changed the way casinos look at card counters, how a mathematical co..more
Utterly fascinating. Gambling, mobsters, mathematicians, economists, hedge funds, greed, and how it’s linked together by some early genius and freak timing. Part history lesson, part text book, part novel, all true, it flows beautifully. For anyone who is interested in math, the financial markets, or Las Vegas, this book is a fun read.
Poundstone tells the story of how one formula changed the way casinos look at card counters, how a mathematical co..more
Sep 03, 2008Andy rated it really liked it
I love books like this.
It's non fictional account of a few people who were behind 'fortune's formula'. This formula tells you how much of your total net worth to invest in any particular investment. All you have to do is figure out the expected payout of the investment based on information you have.
Does it work? Yes, if you have accurate data.
The investments have to have an expected payoff of greater than 0: meaning you will make some money on average--even though there is some chance of losing..more
It's non fictional account of a few people who were behind 'fortune's formula'. This formula tells you how much of your total net worth to invest in any particular investment. All you have to do is figure out the expected payout of the investment based on information you have.
Does it work? Yes, if you have accurate data.
The investments have to have an expected payoff of greater than 0: meaning you will make some money on average--even though there is some chance of losing..more
Jan 02, 2016Chip rated it it was amazing · review of another edition
In 2015 I read Gertner's The Idea Factory: Bell Labs and the Great Age of American Innovation a fascinating look at AT&T's R&D department. Fortune's Formula expands upon Shannon's contribution to gambling and Wall Street. Shannon took his coworker John Kelly's formula Gmax=R (The Kelly Criteria) to Vegas with Edward Thorp to stack the odds against casinos and win blackjack games hand over fist. Thorp eventually published his own book Beat the Dealer: A Winning Strategy for the Game of Tw..more
Jun 03, 2014Douglas Cosby rated it really liked it
I started and quit this book a while back. I picked it up again after reading 'Trading Bases' because I remembered that it offered an explanation of the Kelly betting strategy. I think the reason that I didn't like it the first time was twofold: 1) The Kelly criterion seemed over-simplified and maybe even wrong; and 2) I had nothing to apply it to at the time. Now that I understand it, and have more active interests in investing (and possibly building a betting model for baseball), it is more al..more
Jun 16, 2017Dennis Littrell rated it it was amazing
Gangsters, gamblers, mathematicians, touts, hedge fund wizards, and more.
“Fortune’s Formula” is the Kelly Criterion from J.L. Kelly Jr. who was a mathematician at Bell Labs in the 1950s. Essentially the formula gives the optimal size of bets in order to win as much as possible over time while reducing the risk of ruin. The thing for the reader to realize is that the Kelly Criterion has no utility unless the bettor or investor has an advantage. That needs to be repeated: on an even bet, such as..more
“Fortune’s Formula” is the Kelly Criterion from J.L. Kelly Jr. who was a mathematician at Bell Labs in the 1950s. Essentially the formula gives the optimal size of bets in order to win as much as possible over time while reducing the risk of ruin. The thing for the reader to realize is that the Kelly Criterion has no utility unless the bettor or investor has an advantage. That needs to be repeated: on an even bet, such as..more
Mostly this book is good and in parts it's great. The great parts are around the biographical sections relating to Shannon and the use of the Kelly formula in famous financial investment firm collapses & successes.
Where the real value of this book lies is its extended discussion on what risk is and how you can go about handling it in your own investments and life. It's for this I'd recommend it to anyone. The Kelly formula is less about mathematics and mostly about dealing with risk in an op..more
Where the real value of this book lies is its extended discussion on what risk is and how you can go about handling it in your own investments and life. It's for this I'd recommend it to anyone. The Kelly formula is less about mathematics and mostly about dealing with risk in an op..more
I really enjoyed reading Fortune's Formula. Poundstone as the amazing ability to simplify complexity while keeping the reader engaged.
With that said, I wish Poundstone had gone into more detail explaining how the Kelly Criterion works in games (or investments) with more than 2 possible outcomes. Instead, he just informs us that there are people out there using this formula for such scenarios such as horse racing, investing, etc.
Most importantly, I like that Fortune's Formula caused me to go and..more
With that said, I wish Poundstone had gone into more detail explaining how the Kelly Criterion works in games (or investments) with more than 2 possible outcomes. Instead, he just informs us that there are people out there using this formula for such scenarios such as horse racing, investing, etc.
Most importantly, I like that Fortune's Formula caused me to go and..more
William Poundstone is rapidly becoming one of my favorite authors. It amazes me how deep he gets into a variety of topics. This book focuses on information theory (as laid out by Claude Shannon) and John Kelly's application of that theory to investments, be they gambling in Vegas or on Wall Street. This is more of an enjoyment read for me, but it correlates tightly with the Random Walk Guide. In my view, that reinforces the views expressed in the Random Walk Guide - a good thing as far as I'm co..more
While this book has its ups and downs, the majority of the book is extremely interesting. Despite hearing much about Ed Thorp and the start of quants, I never knew of the Kelly criterion and Claude Shannon (including information theory). Mr. Poundstone does a great job interweaving different stories—with plethora of characters—to present the reader with a great comprehensive record of 'Fortune's Formula.'
I highly recommend this book. Not just for investors, but also for any curious mind.
I highly recommend this book. Not just for investors, but also for any curious mind.
Oct 19, 2014Billy rated it really liked it
Fortune S Formula William Poundstone Pdf
A fascinating read that ropes in blackjack, horse racing, the Mafia, information theory and mathematics, all in the quest to find a way to beat the house, be it the casino or stock market.
Poundstone is an excellent writer, but I found myself wanting a little more in the way of technical detail. But that is less a criticism of him and more revealing of my tastes.
Poundstone is an excellent writer, but I found myself wanting a little more in the way of technical detail. But that is less a criticism of him and more revealing of my tastes.
Betting system that beat casinos and Wall Street. 'Central theme' is the Kelly Criterion. Brings in information theory, mentions Shannon and Tom Cover a lot. Very interesting, but drawn out (as usual). More interesting as a history than anything else. Also includes some early organized crime (betting) history as well.
I didn't like this book at first, due to its more simplistic writing style. (May be because I just read World Order - Kissinger, books sounds like reading to a 2-year old) As I read further I realized how much there was in this book. It thoroughly documents the Kelly Criterion and shows how quantitative finance as a discipline has evolved. This book helped remind me of that interest.
I liked aspects of this book - I was barely aware of Shannon, so I really like the introduction to his theories. The story is incredible overall, but I found the stock market stuff (the second half, roughly) less interesting and less understandable to me.
With that said, I would recommend this book to people who are nerdy in certain ways.
With that said, I would recommend this book to people who are nerdy in certain ways.
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William Poundstone is the author of more than ten non-fiction books, including 'Fortune's Formula', which was the Amazon Editors' Pick for #1 non-fiction book of 2005. Poundstone has written for The New York Times, Psychology Today, Esquire, Harpers, The Economist, and Harvard Business Review. He has appeared on the Today Show, The David Letterman Show and hundreds of radio talk-shows throughout t..more
“there’s no point in looking for hundred-dollar bills in the street. Why? Because, were there any hundred-dollar bills, someone would already have picked them up.” — 2 likes
“Judge Landis ultimately ruled that a federal judge had no jurisdiction over local antigambling statutes.” — 0 likes